LINKS-ДАЙДЖЕСТ 25.02.2012
IceCap Asset Management: Tug Of War
Перетягивание каната – Инфляция или дефляция
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Tug of War – Inflation vs. Deflation
The 1922 German hyperinflation experience was undoubtedly propelled by printing massive amounts of money. Yet, the Japanese money printing experience has had no impact whatsoever on inflation.
Here we are in 2012, and the World’s four main central banks (USA, Britain, Europe and Japan) continue to print gobs of money. Will the outcome be 1922 Germany or 1990 Japan?
An important point to understand is whether the printed money actually flows through to the economy. In the 1922 German case – yes, it definitely did. The printed money circulated in the economy causing the German Mark to plummet against other currencies which resulted in extreme inflation.
Самое важное – понимать, поступают ли напечатанные деньги в экономику.
Today, trillions of Dollars, Yen, Euros and Pounds are being printed – yet this new money is certainly not being distributed into the economy. Instead, big banks everywhere are hoarding the newly minted cash for a rainy day. In economic parlance, this is referred to as a “liquidity trap” meaning there is plenty of cash available, however the cash remains trapped and is not being used. This makes today’s situation, perilously closer to the Japanese experience.
На рисунке внизу показаны резервы депозитарных институтов в ФРС
We (and many, many others) have been very critical of the American, European and British central banks. We freely admit that these people all have very good intentions – they truly do want the World’s economy to return to normal.
Yet in our opinion, it is their analysis of the problem that is leading them to make a very big mistake. The central banks fully believe that the World is currently suffering from what they would call – an aggregate demand problem. They believe growth is slow around the World because people and companies are not spending as much money as they normally would.
Сейчас 2012 год и 4 основных центральных банка продолжают печатать горы денег. Что будет в результате: Германия 1922 года или Япония 1990?
To many of the big banks, stock brokers and mutual fund sales people, this “aggregate demand problem” sounds no different than any other economic slow down – it’s a part of a normal business cycle. And during a normal business cycle, the solution to encourage people and companies to spend more money has always been 1) lower interest rates and 2) increased government spending. And if the situation becomes untenable as it is today, you can add 3) money printing to the list.
The reason this combination isn’t working today is due to the flawed belief that all of this extra money sloshing around in the economy will naturally entice people and companies to spend their hard earned (and borrowed) money again.
With trillions in freshly printed money, sub 2% growth, widening government deficits and continued bailouts to banks, it has become crystal clear that the central banks’ money printing strategies are not working.
The reason it isn’t working is simply due to the fact that all of this free money being provided to the banks, is not being distributed back into the economy. US and European banks are hoarding this free money and as a result - the transfer mechanism is broken.
Деньги, которые печатают центральные банки, не попадают в экономику. Трансферный механизм разрушен.
For the game of Tug of War - it is this lack of liquidity-flow-through that is hugely supportive of a return to the 1990 Japanese experience. The lack of spending by people and companies in favour of paying down their debt and increasing their savings guarantees sluggish growth at best.
However, it is also critical to know that despite the hoarding of cash by the big banks, the act of money printing by the central banks strongly encourages investors to shun low paying bonds and cash, and instead focus on stocks and commodities.
This by product of money printing has two effects. First, it pushes commodity prices higher, which inevitably causes the prices of some things to also rise higher (when you have a chance, check out the price of gasoline these days).
Secondly, while a higher stock market does help everyone who owns stocks, it just so happens to help the very wealthy a lot more. It is this growing divide which is fueling the bitter tax debate in the US, as well as being the spark for the recent “Occupy Wall Street” movement. Today, you can also include it as the indirect spark which will lead to the eventual social uprising in Greece.
Побочный эффект от печатания денег – рост commodities и перераспределение национального богатства в пользу более богатых.
The bottom line is as follows – the combination of the bursting of property prices and the refusal of the big banks to write-off the corresponding bad debt is resulting in a big wave of deflation. We expect this to continue. Yet, we also are mindful enough to know that pockets of inflation will occur in various countries and within various industries.
Результат будет следующим: крах цен на недвижимость и отказ крупных банков списывать потери от этих инвестиций приведет к большой волне дефляции. Мы ожидаем, что этот процесс продолжится. Мы также не знаем, где – в каких странах и каких отраслях случатся вспынки инфляции.
The real threat of hyper inflation will occur when a major currency collapses. Any country that leaves the Eurozone will undoubtedly see extreme inflation during their transition years. Outside of the Euro-zone, Britain remains at risk due to it being a key center of global finance and at risk should the World’s super-size banks implode once again.
Реальная угроза гиперинфляции возникнет в тот момент, когда произойдет крах основной валюты.
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