Из известных людей первой реакция пришла от Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive and co-chief investment officer at PIMCO
S&P reaffirmed this morning the AAA rating of the US but, importantly, slapped a “negative outlook” on the rating due to concerns on how the country will address its “very large budget deficits and rising government indebtedness.” In justifying this dramatic move, it noted that “there is a material risk that US policymakers might not reach an agreement in how to address medium- and long-term budgetary challenges by 2013.”
This is a timely reminder of the seriousness of America’s fiscal issues, for the country and for the rest of the world.
The continued failure to come up with a credible medium-term fiscal reform program would increase borrowing costs for all segments of US society, thereby undermining investment, employment and growth. It would also curtail foreigners’ appetite to add to their already substantial holdings of US assets. And it would weaken the dollar.
The US also risks eroding its standing at the core of the global monetary system.
The world looks to America for a range of “global public goods” — including the reserve currency, the deepest and most liquid government debt markets, and the “risk free” standard. With no other country able and willing to step into this role, the result would be global efficiency losses and a higher risk of economic and financial fragmentation.
S&P’s warning should be heard loud and clear in Washington DC, hopefully acting as a catalyst for faster convergence on a credible medium-term fiscal package. It is also a reminder of risk to the global economy, as well as the generalized deterioration in the sovereign credit quality of several advanced economies.
The time has come for the US (and other advanced economies) to take better control of its fiscal destiny—for the sake of American society and for the well being of the global economy.
А вот что думает об этом уже известный нам Bob Janjuah:
Перестаньте беспокоиться о еврозоне и ее периферии и начинайте беспокоиться о США ( долларе).
Вот что он написал:
Glad I put my note out last week. Folks way too focused on eurozone, where ORDERLY restructuring of greece and maybr too ireland and port, and meaningful fiscal adjustment, are both part of the l-t credible solution and where acceptance of this is a good thing in the long run as it means the euro and ECB are credible and not at risk of fiat money printing.
At the other end we have the US where the mrkt is way way too complacent abt the fast deteriorating credit risk of USA Inc., and where the hope for credible and meaningful fiscal adjustments are a mere dream, and where we have a central bank that knows only 1 (failed) trick – money debasement.
А вот что сообщает инсайдер от Рейтерс
S&P GLOBAL SOVEREIGN RATINGS HEAD SAYS NEITHER OBAMA NOR REP. RYAN PLAN ENOUGH TO FIX DEFICIT– REUTERS INSIDER
S&P GLOBAL SOVEREIGN RATINGS HEAD SAYS GULF BETWEEN U.S. PARTIES ON DEFICIT PLAN HAS NEVER BEEN WIDER– REUTERS INSIDER
S&P GLOBAL SOVEREIGN RATINGS HEAD SAYS RISK IS U.S. RATING COULD FALL TO AA+ FROM AAA– REUTERS INSIDER
S&P GLOBAL SOVEREIGN RATINGS HEAD SAYS U.S. DOLLAR WELL ENTRENCHED AS WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY, WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE– REUTERS INSIDER
Ни Обама ни республиканец Райан не имеют плана, чтобы зафиксировать дефицит
Никогда пропасть между двумя политическими партиями относительно бюджетного дефицита не была столь широка
Рейтинг США может упасть до АА+
Роль доллара, который застолбил за собой место мировой резервной валюты, будет меняться
Но мне все-таки непонятно, почему доллар рос после этой новости относительно всех валют (не только евро) и американские облигации продолжают расти (доходность падает)?
